May 18, 2021Fear is the mind-killer: secular growth stocks are becoming increasingly attractive.Secular growth stocks have been dramatic relative underperformers for the last 11 months. This underperformance was quiet at first, but has become really notable in 2021. The chart above shows that cheap consumer stocks as measured by the GS Consumer Cheap basket have outperformed expensive, secular growth technology stocks as…Investing7 min readInvesting7 min read
Apr 17, 2021Lessons on winning and losing as an investor from “The Art of Execution”I recently read Lee Freeman Shor’s “The Art of Execution” and thought I would publish a brief review/overview as it resonated with me. This is more of a Cliff Notes summary than anything thoughtful btw. Shor was an allocator at Old Mutual Global Investors. While he was there, he created…Investing8 min readInvesting8 min read
Dec 26, 2020Lessons from George Vanderheiden, one of the greatest investors I’ve ever known.George Vanderheiden is one of the best investors I’ve ever known. He chose to retire in early 2000, massively underweight technology and massively overweight home builders, tobacco and other value oriented stocks. …Investing4 min readInvesting4 min read
Dec 22, 2020Why suits are cyclical and business travel is coming backBusiness travel is coming back for the same reason that suits always come back. Suits are cyclical. Almost all offices go casual late in the cycle. Then the economy rolls over and a few months into the recession, someone shows up at the office wearing a suit because they are…Investing1 min readInvesting1 min read
Oct 18, 2020Why category leading brick and mortar retailers are likely the biggest long term Covid beneficiaries.I believe the biggest long term beneficiaries of Covid will prove to be category leading brick and mortar retailers. By this I simply mean brick and mortar retailers who have dominant share in a category — whether it be home improvement, general merchandise, electronics or any other retail category. Their…Investing13 min readInvesting13 min read
Aug 14, 2020Investing Mistakes, Chapter 1001Investing is a difficult, humbling pursuit. I am often asked about mistakes I have made. While the list of my mistakes is quite long, I thought I would write up my most recent mistake of commission, i.e. a mistake based on an action I took that resulted in a loss…Investing11 min readInvesting11 min read
Jun 11, 2020Risk/reward in the stock market: Three Body Problems and Hic Sunt Leones.The “Three-Body Problem” is a reference to Poincare’s 1889 work showing that there was no closed form solution for modeling three point masses (planets or moons) according to Newton’s laws of motion and universal gravitation as the resulting dynamic system is chaotic for most initial conditions. It is also a…Investing4 min readInvesting4 min read
May 10, 2020Scale and Loyalty are more important online than offline, which drives much of the “winner take most” reality of the internet.Scale and loyalty are generally the most important metrics to me as an investor as they are the most sustainable — and measurable — competitive advantages. They are *much* more important online than offline, which is why the internet economy has such pronounced “winner take most” dynamics relative to the…Investing9 min readInvesting9 min read
May 2, 2020Investing Book ListI recently had the pleasure of giving a talk to CSIMA, which is the Columbia Student Investment Management Association. Afterwards, they asked for a list of investing book recommendations. I thought I would post it here on Medium for the benefit of anyone who was interested. The list became quite…Investing6 min readInvesting6 min read
Mar 22, 2020Software contracts, first-lien debt and the reality that no revenue is truly recurring.Robert Smith, CEO and founder of Vista Equity Partners famously said: “Software contracts are better than first-lien debt. You realize a company will not pay the interest payment on their first lien until after they pay their software maintenance or subscription fee. We get paid our money first. Who has…Investing5 min readInvesting5 min read